Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences / Forecasting the Migration Processes Impact on the Regional Socio-Economic Situation By Means of Cognitive Modelling

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Issue
Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2019 12 (12)
Authors
Patlasov, Oleg Yu.; Luchko, Oleg N.; Mukhametdinova, Svetlana Kh.
Contact information
Patlasov, Oleg Yu.: K.G. Razumovsky Moscow State University of Technologies and Management 63 Pushkina Str., Omsk, 644010, Russia; Omsk Humanitarian Academy 2а 4th Cheluskintsev Str., Omsk, 644105, Russia; ; ORCID: 0000–0003–2015–1474; Luchko, Oleg N.: Omsk Humanitarian Academy 2а 4th Cheluskintsev Str., Omsk, 644105, Russia; ORCID: 0000–0001–8476–8954; Mukhametdinova, Svetlana Kh.: Omsk Humanitarian Academy 2а 4th Cheluskintsev Str., Omsk, 644105, Russa; ORCID: 0000–0002–3063–3269; Патласов, О.Ю.: Сибирский казачий институт технологий и управления (филиал) Московский государственный университет технологий и управления им. К.Г. Разумовского Россия, 644010, Омск, ул. Пушкина, 63; Омская гуманитарная академия Россия, 644105, Омск, ул. 4-я Челюскинцев, 2а; Лучко, О.Н.: Омская гуманитарная академия Россия, 644105, Омск, ул. 4-я Челюскинцев, 2а; Мухаметдинова, С.Х.: Омская гуманитарная академия Россия, 644105, Омск, ул. 4-я Челюскинцев, 2а
Keywords
migration processes; level of tension of the socio-economic situation; incoming migration flows; cognitive modelling
Abstract

The research problem consists in the need to resolve the contradiction between the increasing number of migrants in the recipient region, affecting the tension of the socio-economic situation and the lack of a scientifically grounded system for the effective management of incoming migration flows through the example of the Omsk Region. The purpose of the study is to develop a system for effective management of migration processes based on the analysis and forecasting of the development of the socio-economic situation in the region by means of cognitive modelling. The authors used the following research methods: questionnaires, expert assessment and cognitive modelling. In the course of the study, based on an analysis of the results of the questionnaire and expert assessment, the authors identified the control factors that have the most significant impact on the level of tension of the socio-economic situation from the incoming migration flows, and created a cognitive model. A series of simulation experiments was carried out on the developed model, which made it possible to predict changes in the target factor — the level of tension in the socio-economic situation, as a generalized characteristic reflecting the presence of contradictions in the interests of the local population and migrants, depending on the degree of influence on the controlling factors. The proposals on the effective management of the tension of the socio-economic situation are formulated taking into account the influence of incoming migration flows. The result of the study can be used in the analysis and forecasting of the tension of the socio-economic situation depending on the incoming migration flows in recipient countries or regions

Pages
2277–2289
DOI
10.17516/1997–1370–0522
Paper at repository of SibFU
https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/128433

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