Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences / Assessment of the Sustainability of Budget Revenues in the Regions of the Russian Federation

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Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2020 13 (4)
Malkina, Marina Yu.
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Malkina, Marina Yu.: Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation; ; ORCID: 0000-0002-3152-3934
fiscal sustainability; region; sub-federal budget; budget revenue; risk and return of the budget system

The paper proposes new approaches to assessing the sustainability of budget revenues in a region, which have been tested on the example of 83 subjects of the Russian Federation in 2010-2017. The sustainability of budget revenues is estimated on the basis of time series of two indicators: the ratio of sub-federal budget revenues to GRP and real income of sub-federal budgets per capita. To exclude economies of scale and eliminate system-wide risk, both indicators are calculated as a ratio to average Russian values. Using the construction of temporary linear regressions, a steady growth rate, absolute risk and relative risk of budget revenues are determined. For a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of budget revenues in a region, we proposed the Arrow-Pratt function with the incorporated risk aversion parameter of 1.5. Using the proposed technique, we evaluated the absolute and relative risk, as well as the sustainability of budget revenues in the Russian regions. Assessments based on the two alternative indicators showed a high correlation. Our study revealed that the least stable budget systems are typical for some border regions, including the backward North Caucasian republics and Far Eastern regions with an unstable economy, and Tyumen Oblast, which is quite developed, but depends on the world market. At the same time, some extractive regions (Republic of Sakha), on the contrary, showed a high stability of budget revenues

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