Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences / Impact of the 2020 Pandemic on Revenue from Various Taxes in the Russian Regions

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Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2021 14 (7)
Malkina, Marina Yu.
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Malkina, Marina Yu.: Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation; ; ORCID: 0000-0002-3152-3934
region; 2020 pandemic; tax revenue; regional resilience; decomposition

The article investigates the impact of the 2020 pandemic on tax revenues of Russian regions at the stages of their collection and allocation to regional budgets. To exclude the influence of the seasonal component and uneven receipts of various taxes to the budget, the moving annual tax revenues were calculated with a shift of one month. Based on these data for 2013-March 2020, linear time regressions were built and decomposed into 8 taxes and tax groups. These regressions were used to predict non-pandemic tax revenues for different regions in April-December 2020. The impact of the pandemic on the regional tax losses (gains) and their decomposition by sources was calculated through the deviation of the actual revenues from their predicted non-pandemic values on an accrual basis until the end of 2020. We found that the pandemic had led to losses of 13.9 % of total tax revenues in the country and 6.2 % of regional budgets’ own tax revenues. The mining regions are the most affected by the pandemic. On the contrary, in some Far Eastern regions, there is an abnormal increase in tax collections. The largest contribution to the decrease in tax revenues at the consolidated and federal levels was made by the MET receipts; they fell sharply due to lower prices and volumes of oil and gas. However, the negative effect of this decrease at the federal level was dampened by stabilizing VAT receipts. Excise taxes played a positive role in mitigating pandemic risks. The tax distribution system has shown its equalizing function when allocating tax revenues to sub-federal budgets. The largest negative contribution to the change in regional tax revenues during the 2020 pandemic was made by the corporate income tax, while the negative impact of property taxes and special tax regimes turned out to be less significant. Personal income tax has proven to be the main damper of tax revenues at the regional level. The results obtained are applicable to the management of the state fiscal revenues during pandemic crises

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