Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences: Is Timber Investment Actually the Driver of Logging Growth and Human Welfare?

Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences / Is Timber Investment Actually the Driver of Logging Growth and Human Welfare?

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Issue: Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2022 15 (7)
Authors: Ivantsova, Ekaterina D.
Contact information: Ivantsova, Ekaterina D.: Siberian Federal University Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation;
Keywords: investment policy; forest industry; timber investment; Granger causality
Abstract: Investment in the forest sector is one of the critical issues for the development of the forest industry in Russia. To form an effective sectoral investment policy, it is necessary to accurately understand the causes and consequences of key processes in the industry. In particular, it is important to establish how investments are reflected in timber harvesting, and whether there is a connection between these processes and the well-being of the population. The study is aimed at identifying causal relationships between investment in the forestry sector, logging, and the well-being of the population by identifying Granger causality in vector autoregressive models. After testing for stationarity of the series, we evaluated a five-equation vector autoregression model and performed zero-constraint F‑tests to identify causality. The results show that there is a bi-directional positive causality between logging volume and investment in forestry and pulp and paper production. The causality between investment in forestry and investment in pulp and paper production is also bi-directional and positive. In addition, one Granger cause has been identified for the growth of GRP, which is investments in wood processing and the production of wood products. Thus, the results suggest that investments in forestry and the forestry industry are important determinants of logging volumes in the Russian forest sector, and vice versa. At the same time, for the welfare of the population, the causality was revealed only on the part of investments in wood processing, which is also a practically important result in the context of stimulating investment policy in the forestry sector
Pages: 955–964
DOI: 10.17516/1997-1370-157-0900
Paper at repository of SibFU: https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/145593

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