Siberian Federal University

Issue

Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2023 16 (3)

Authors

Malkina, Marina Yu.

Contact information

Malkina, Marina Yu.: Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod Nizhni Novgorod, Russian Federation; ; ORCID: 0000-0002-3152-3934

Keywords

region; pandemic; sanctions; resilience; index; industrial production volume; retail trade turnover; volume of paid services to the population

Abstract

The article examines the resilience of the economies of 85 Russian Federation constituent entities (regions) to modern pandemic and sanctions shocks. The resilience is assessed on the basis of three indicators presented in comparable prices: the volume of industrial production, retail trade turnover and the volume of paid services to the population. For the period from January 2016 to September 2022, the moving (with a shift of one month) year-on-year growth rates of these indicators are calculated. On their basis, the average annual growth rates are computed within four established periods: pre-pandemic (January 2016 – February 2020), pandemic (March 2020 – April 2021), recovery (May 2021 – February 2022), sanctions (March 2022 – September 2022). For each indicator in each region, partial resilience indices in three periods (two shocks and intershock recovery) are determined using the method of R. Martin and R. Lagravinese, which is based on a comparison of changes in the average growth rates in the region and the country. The integral resilience index in each period is calculated by summing up partial resilience indices, normalized by the Z‑score method. The study showed the unequal impact of the pandemic and sanctions on industry, retail and services in the regions, which is explained by the different nature of the two shocks. Meanwhile, for most partial indicators and the integral resilience index, a fairly pronounced negative relationship was found between the resistance and recovery indices in adjacent periods, which indicates a tendency for the regions to return to their own development patterns after the impact of the shock. Given the obvious “trace” of the pandemic left by the beginning of the sanctions shock in 2022, the incompleteness of the latter does not yet allow us to assess its long-term consequences for the trajectories of regional development. The results obtained can be useful in managing the resilient development of regions under conditions of recurring shocks of various nature

Pages

454–467

EDN

RHWNGG

Paper at repository of SibFU

https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/149954

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0).