Journal of Siberian Federal University. Engineering & Technologies / An Indirect Forecasting System of the Generated Electricity from a Solar Panel Array Based on Modified Fuzzy Neural Network

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Issue
Journal of Siberian Federal University. Engineering & Technologies. 2024 17 (4)
Authors
Engel, Ekaterina A.; Engel, Nikita E.
Contact information
Engel, Ekaterina A.: Khakas State University Abakan, Russian Federation; ; Engel, Nikita E.: Khakas State University Abakan, Russian Federation
Keywords
UML; forecasting of a solar power plant production; recurrent neural networks; attention mechanism; modified fuzzy neural network; UML
Abstract

The forecast of the generated electricity of a solar power plant allows efficient and safe management of electrical grid that include solar power plants. The day-ahead market buys at penalty rates electricity from solar power plants, deviating by more than 5 % of the maximum solar power plant capacity from the provided hourly day-ahead market layout of electricity generated by the solar power plant. An analysis of existing software showed the lack of available software for effectively forecasting the production of a solar power plant. In this study, an indirect forecasting intelligent technology of a solar power plant production based on a modified fuzzy neural network with an attention mechanism was developed, tested and implemented. The UML class diagram and block-modular architecture of the indirect forecasting intelligent technology of a solar power plant production have been developed. This block-modular architecture provides flexibility and easy modification of the indirect forecasting intelligent technology of a solar power plant production. The approval of the indirect forecasting intelligent technology of a solar power plant production reflects its effective, robust results and the feasibility of its use for automatic generation of day-ahead market layouts

Pages
464–473
EDN
JKWKAW
Paper at repository of SibFU
https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/153186

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