Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences / Specific Features Driving Inflation for Consumer Goods and Services in the Modern Russian Economy

Full text (.pdf)
Issue
Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2025 18 (6)
Authors
Baranov, Aleksandr O.; Volkova, Yekaterina A.; Somova, Irina A.
Contact information
Baranov, Aleksandr O. : Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS Novosibirsk, Russian Federation; Novosibirsk State University Novosibirsk, Russian Federation; ; ORCID: 0000-0001-8597-9788; Volkova, Yekaterina A. : Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS Novosibirsk, Russian Federation; Novosibirsk State University Novosibirsk, Russian Federation; ORCID: 0009-0008-1327-3784; Somova, Irina A. : Novosibirsk State University Novosibirsk, Russian Federation; ORCID: 0000-0001-9353-9336
Keywords
inflation; factors affecting inflation in the Russian economy; inflation regulation tools
Abstract

In 2023–2024 the Bank of Russia failed to curb inflation by raising the key rate. This prompted the need to scrutinize the factors affecting inflation in Russia in recent years in order to determine tools to reduce the rate of price growth. Using econometric analysis, the article investigates factors that influenced inflation in Russia in 2018–2024. On the basis of monthly data, regression equations were constructed for the total CPI, as well as separately for the CPI for food, non- food goods and services. The results confirmed the hypothesis that labor shortage in the labor market affects the inflation rate: the growth rates of nominal wages were statistically significant both for the general CPI and for the CPI of food and non-food products. The growth rate of the interbank MIACR rate, which has a strong positive correlation with the key rate of the Bank of Russia, also proved to be one of the factors of inflation increase. In the case of the overall CPI, it was discovered that the growth rate of nominal wages, MIACR rate and inflation expectations together explain up to 81 % of the variation in the period under consideration. The CPI components show similar dependencies as the general index, but for non-food products the ruble- dollar exchange rate and oil price have a significant impact on the price dynamics. The peculiarity of CPI dynamics in the services sector includes the impact of electricity, gas and water tariffs on the latter. In general, the analysis shows that in the modern Russian economy the fight against inflation by raising the key rate is an insufficiently effective tool. For more effective price control in conditions of large-scale warfare, budget deficit and unbalanced labor market, monetary policy measures should be supplemented by temporary regulation of prices for services of natural monopolies, as well as more stringent control of the ruble exchange rate

Pages
1198–1210
EDN
FSCWJH
Paper at repository of SibFU
https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/156200

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