Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences / Forecast Scenario Model of Labor Resource Dynamics in Municipalities of the Sverdlovsk Region with the Spatial Effects Consideration

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Issue
Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2025 18 (12)
Authors
Naumov, Ilya V.; Nikulina, Natalia L.
Contact information
Naumov, Ilya V. : Institute of Economics UB RAS Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; ORCID: 0000-0002-2464-6266; Nikulina, Natalia L. : Institute of Economics UB RAS Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; ; ORCID: 0000-0002-6882-3172
Keywords
labor resources; dynamics; forecasting; SAR models; municipalities
Abstract

This article explores the development of a predictive scenario model for labor force dynamics in municipalities of the Sverdlovsk Region, taking spatial effects into account. The authors propose a methodological approach that includes spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial autoregressive modeling using various spatial weight matrices. Empirically, it is shown that for territories of the Sverdlovsk Region within the influence zone of growth poles, spatial effects are statistically significant, and ignoring them leads to significant forecasting errors. A scenario-based SAR model, including key influencing factors (wage level, infrastructure development), was constructed and verified for these territories. Spatial effects were not confirmed for territories remote from the growth poles, justifying the use of standard temporal models for these territories. The developed approach enables the creation of a system of alternative forecast scenarios, improving the accuracy and validity of management decisions in regional development

Pages
2527–2539
EDN
PVYUGY
Paper at repository of SibFU
https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/158010

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