- Issue
- Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2010 3 (5)
- Authors
- Semenova, Alexandra A.
- Contact information
- Semenova, Alexandra A. : Siberian Federal University , 79 Svobodny, Krasnoyarsk, 660041 Russia , e-mail:
- Keywords
- ethnos; social system; cultural researches; Foresight Research; methods of Foresight Research
- Abstract
In the given article we consider principles of modern foresight research running. In the introduction we define the place of the foresight-research within the circle of other operations, involving future forecasting, such as: forecasting, science fiction and planning. We recollect the advantages of foresight research in comparison with other methods, as the most scientifically-correct approach to forecasting of future scenarios of certain phenomena development in the life of humanity. The second pat of the article is dedicated to description of modern methodologies of foresight research running. Here, we present the statistics of the most frequently used methods of foresight according to the data of the 2007 European research, give a short description and the sphere of usage of the most frequently used methods - literature review, bibliometric analysis, Delphi-interrogation, critical technologies, method of expert panels running, brainstorming, future scenarios development, SWOTanalysis and others. We also give the scheme of the most traditional combinations of methods for a complex foresight research carrying. The third part of the article concerns the building of a strategy of foresight research methods application in order to study social-anthropological systems and ethnical cultural populations. In the given part, we fix the fact that at present time cultural studies foresight researches are on the stage of their becoming, and formulate some basic principals of methodological strategy of cultural studies foresight researches. Moreover, in the given article we present a spectrum of existing methods of foresight researching, which should be applied in the course of ethno-cultural systems study. In particular, we underline the significance of civil panels running, what differs foresight researches of ethno-cultural systems from other spheres of its application (politics, industry, economics and so on). Besides, in the article we present a range of themes for experts panels for the purpose of study of the ethno-cultural systems future.
- Pages
- 667-676
- Paper at repository of SibFU
- https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/1801
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0).