Siberian Federal University

Issue

Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2017 10 (11)

Authors

Efimov, Valerii S.

Contact information

Efimov, Valerii S.: Siberian Federal University 79 Svobodny, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russia;

Keywords

Siberia; Russian Far East; economic development; scenarios; global trends

Abstract

The article presents a study of variants of possible future for Siberia and Russian Far East up until 2050. The authors consider the global trends that are likely to determine the situation of Russia and the Siberian macro-region in the long term. It is shown that the demand for natural resources of Siberia and Russian Far East will be determined by the economic development of Asian countries, the processes of urbanization and the growth of urban “middle class”. When determining possible scenarios, the authors use a method of conceptual scenario planning that was developed under the framework of foresight technology. Three groups of scenario factors became the basis for determining scenarios: external constant conditions, external variable factors, internal variable factors. Combinations of scenario factors set the field for the possible variants of the future of Siberia and Russian East. The article describes four key scenarios: “Broad international cooperation”, “Exclusive partnership”, “Optimization of the country”, “Retention of territory”. For each of them the authors provide “the image of the future” (including the main features of international cooperation, economic and social development), as well as the quantitative estimation of population and GDP dynamics: • “Broad international cooperation” – the population of Russia will increase by 15.7 % from 146.5 million in 2015 to 169.5 million in 2050; Russia’s GDP will grow by 3.4 times – from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 12.8 trillion dollars in 2050. • “Exclusive partnership” – the population of Russia will increase by 8.1 % from 146.5 million in 2015 to 158.4 million in 2050; Russia’s GDP will grow by 2.7 times from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 10.1 trillion dollars in 2050. • “Country optimization” – the population of Russia will decrease by 0.1 % from 146.5 million in 2015 to 146.4 million in 2050; Russia’s GDP will grow by 2.0 times from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 7.4 trillion dollars in 2050. • “Territory retention” – the population of Russia will decrease by 11.9 % from 146.5 million in 2015 to 129.1 million; Russia’s GDP will grow by 1.6 times from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 6.0 trillion dollars in 2050

Pages

1669-1686

Paper at repository of SibFU

https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/67834

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0).