Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences / Evaluation of Probabilistic Conclusions of Experts in Criminal Proceedings

Full text (.pdf)
Issue
Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2024 17 (1)
Authors
Kudryavtseva, Anna V.; Kirillova, Natalia P.; Kochemirovsky, Vladimir A.; Stoyko, Nikolay G.; Pristanskov, Vladimir D.
Contact information
Kudryavtseva, Anna V. : North- West Branch of the Russian State University of Justice St. Petersburg, Russian Federation; ; Kirillova, Natalia P.: St. Petersburg State University St. Petersburg, Russian Federation; ; Kochemirovsky, Vladimir A. : Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University St. Petersburg, Russian Federation; ; Stoyko, Nikolay G.: St. Petersburg State University St. Petersburg, Russian Federation; ; Pristanskov, Vladimir D. : St. Petersburg State University St. Petersburg, Russian Federation;
Keywords
expert practice; probability; Bayesian method; probable expert conclusions; evidentiary value; scientific validity of methods
Abstract

The article discusses various theories underlying the classification of expert conclusions and approaches aimed at determining probability in expert practice and law. According to the authors, it is possible to apply Bayes’ theorem while calculating the probability. This allows to translate the expert’s conclusions into the category of logical operations performed on the basis of calculations using the Bayesian method. As a result (when the degree of probability in the expert’s conclusion using quantitative and qualitative indicators is substantiated), it turns out that the probable conclusions of the expert differ from the estimated ones and can be considered as evidence. Moreover, they acquire evidentiary value only if the general requirements of relevance, admissibility and reliability are met, as well as the special requirement of the scientific validity of the methods (techniques) used in their production

Pages
4–11
EDN
AQVACN
Paper at repository of SibFU
https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/152479

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