Siberian Federal University 
- Issue
- Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2025 18 (6)
- Authors
- Bychkova, Anna A.
- Contact information
- Bychkova, Anna A.: Institute of Economics UB RAS Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; bychkova.aa@uiec.ru; ORCID: 0000-0001-8676-5298
- Keywords
- migration; ARIMA modelling; migration factors; forecast; dynamics; regions
- Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the need for accurate forecasting of migration flows in the Ural Federal District. Using the ARIMA model, migration trends for 2010–2023 have been analyzed, and the main patterns and fluctuations in population growth have been identified. Modeling scenarios for 2024–2026 made it possible to evaluate possible migration dynamics. The results show the instability of flows caused by socio-economic factors. ARIMA modeling takes into account previous trends and allows you to make forecasts, but their accuracy depends on external conditions, including economic policy and global crises. The scientific novelty lies in the adaptation of the ARIMA model to predict migration processes at the municipal level, which makes it possible to take into account local demographic and economic factors. The results obtained can be used to optimize regional migration policy
- Pages
- 1175–1184
- EDN
- RMCYIA
- Paper at repository of SibFU
- https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/156198
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0).